Adelaide Utd vs Macarthur Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 46.4 vs 46.9), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Adelaide Utd averaging 1.5 and Macarthur averaging 1.3 goals per match.

Adelaide Utd holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 1.3 goals per game and recording 0 clean sheets, compared to Macarthur's leaky backline that surrenders 2.2 goals per match.

Adelaide Utd has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Macarthur has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.1 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Adelaide Utd faces a key vulnerability: they have kept only 0 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. If Macarthur can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 12.8-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 82% win probability for Adelaide Utd. In practical terms, Adelaide Utd would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

While Adelaide Utd holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 12.8-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

In their recent Australian A-League Men match (2026-04-19), Adelaide Utd prevailed 3-1 against Macarthur. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Adelaide Utd secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Macarthur will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Adelaide Utd will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.