Ahli vs Fateh Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (44.9 vs 36.3), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Ahli possess a formidable attacking unit, with I. Toney accounting for 5 goals and the squad maintaining an impressive 2.0 goals per game — a threat no opponent can afford to overlook.

Defensively, Fateh holds the advantage — allowing just 1.2 goals per game against Ahli's 1.6.

Ahli has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Ahli has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 2.8 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Ahli has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Fateh is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Ahli is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Fateh shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Ahli faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.6 goals per match. If Fateh can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 16.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Ahli. In practical terms, Ahli would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Ahli emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (50.1 vs 33.4) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

In their recent Saudi Pro League match (2026-05-06), Ahli prevailed 3-1 against Fateh. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Ahli secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Fateh will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Ahli will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.