Ahli vs Okhdood Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (44.8 vs 38.0), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Few sides can match Ahli in front of goal. Their 2.0 average per fixture tells the story, with I. Toney driving that output personally responsible for 5 goals this campaign.

Ahli's backline outperforms Okhdood's, with 1.6 goals conceded per match versus 2.0.

Ahli has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Ahli has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 3.0 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Ahli has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Okhdood is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Ahli is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Okhdood shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Ahli faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.6 goals per match. If Okhdood can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 24.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Ahli. In practical terms, Ahli would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Ahli emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (50.1 vs 25.7) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

In their recent Saudi Pro League match (2026-05-03), Ahli prevailed 4-0 against Okhdood. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Ahli secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-0 scoreline was emphatic — Ahli completely dominated Okhdood in that encounter, raising serious questions about Okhdood's ability to compete at this level. Okhdood will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Ahli will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.