Alavés vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 64.4 vs 70.8), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Real Madrid leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.7 goals per game compared to Alavés's 1.4 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Alavés and Real Madrid are evenly matched, allowing 1.4 and 1.3 goals per game respectively.

Alavés has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 2 of 6 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Real Madrid has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 2 of 6 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.9 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being likely.

📈 Form Momentum: Alavés has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📈 Form Momentum: Real Madrid has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

💡 Why This Matters: The 10.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 75% win probability for Real Madrid. In practical terms, Real Madrid would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Real Madrid has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 10.0-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In the Spanish La Liga (2026-04-21), Real Madrid beat Alavés 2-1. League results are the most consistent indicator of form, and this result speaks volumes about the current dynamic between these teams. Real Madrid secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 2-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Alavés will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Real Madrid will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.