Almere vs De Graafschap Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 46.2 vs 48.4), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

De Graafschap leads the attacking statistics, averaging 2.3 goals per game compared to Almere's 1.9 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Almere — 1.3 goals conceded per game and 1 clean sheets put them well ahead of De Graafschap, who give up 2.3 goals per match at the other end.

Almere has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

De Graafschap has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Almere has an exceptional home record with a 75% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.9 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Almere has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.86 points per game over their last 7 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: De Graafschap is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 3 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Almere is on the rise with 4W in last 7, while De Graafschap shows signs of decline with 1W in last 3.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Almere faces a key vulnerability: their away form is significantly weaker than their home record. If De Graafschap can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 9.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 72% win probability for Almere. In practical terms, Almere would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Almere has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 9.0-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams drew 2-2 in the Dutch Play-offs 1/2 (2026-05-09). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning. In their recent Dutch Play-offs 1/2 match (2026-05-06), Almere prevailed 3-1 against De Graafschap. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Almere secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. De Graafschap will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Almere will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.