Aruba vs Haiti Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

Aruba has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 71.6 against considerably stronger competition than Haiti (SoS: 46.6). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Aruba holds the attacking edge with 1.7 goals per match versus Haiti's 1.1, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

Defensively, Aruba and Haiti are evenly matched, allowing 1.7 and 1.5 goals per game respectively.

Statistical modeling projects 3.0 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at unlikely based on both sides' scoring records.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Aruba faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.7 goals per match. If Haiti can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 18.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Aruba. In practical terms, Aruba would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Aruba emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (57.0 vs 38.3) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - North/Central America (2025-06-07): Haiti defeated Aruba 0-5. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Haiti's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Aruba. Notably, Haiti achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Aruba shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 0-5 scoreline was emphatic — Haiti completely dominated Aruba in that encounter, raising serious questions about Aruba's ability to compete at this level. Aruba will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Haiti will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.