Asteras vs Larissa Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 52.5 vs 54.7), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Asteras (1.4 goals per match) and Larissa (1.2 goals per match) present comparable offensive threats, making this an evenly contested attacking matchup.

Asteras holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 0.8 goals per game and recording 4 clean sheets, compared to Larissa's leaky backline that surrenders 1.7 goals per match.

Asteras has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Larissa has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Asteras has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.6 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Asteras has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.9 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Larissa is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Asteras is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Larissa shows signs of decline with 1W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Asteras faces a key vulnerability: their away form is significantly weaker than their home record. If Larissa can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 19.3-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Asteras. In practical terms, Asteras would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on the available data, Asteras holds the stronger position heading into this matchup. A power rating of 57.7 against 38.4 underlines their overall quality advantage and makes them the logical pick to come out on top.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams drew 1-1 in the Greek Super League (2026-05-09). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning. In their recent Greek Super League match (2026-04-04), Asteras prevailed 3-1 against Larissa. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Asteras secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Larissa will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Asteras will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.