Atlético MG vs Bahia Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison
Compare Atlético MG vs Bahia: head-to-head stats, recent form, goals, defensive record and strength indicators from last matches.
Atlético MG
Home Team
Bahia
Away Team
Compare...
Performance Radar
Categories Won
Atlético MG
Draw
Bahia
Statistical Comparison
4W, 2D, 4L
3W, 3D, 4L
11 / 10 matches
14 / 10 matches
13 / 10 matches
15 / 10 matches
-2
-1
1 / 10 matches
1 / 10 matches
4 / 10 matches
6 / 10 matches
5 / 10 matches
8 / 10 matches
2W / 5 matches
2W / 5 matches
2W / 5 matches
1W / 5 matches
League Difficulty: 68.0, Opponent Quality: 60.6
League Difficulty: 68.0, Opponent Quality: 58.3
1W / 2 matches
0W / 1 matches
Actual: 1.1 | Diff: -0.11
Actual: 1.4 | Diff: +0.07
Attack: 40.7, Defense: 62.8, Form: 44.4
Attack: 45.5, Defense: 48.8, Form: 29.3
Goal Timing Analysis
0-15'
16-30'
31-45'
46-60'
61-75'
76-90+'
Power Rating Breakdown
Overall
Power Rating Breakdown
Overall
Strength of Schedule
Measures the difficulty of opponents faced. Higher = tougher schedule.
League Difficulty
Opponent Quality
Elite Opponent Record
Atlético MG
Bahia
Opponent Quality: Quality blends league strength, recent points form, goal difference, and home/away context. It is not only club size or reputation.
AI Analysis
The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.
Atlético MG has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 60.9 against considerably stronger competition than Bahia (SoS: 47.6). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.
Atlético MG (1.1 goals per match) and Bahia (1.4 goals per match) present comparable offensive threats, making this an evenly contested attacking matchup.
The defensive records are closely aligned, with Atlético MG giving up 1.3 and Bahia giving up 1.5 per fixture.
Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.7 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.
⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Atlético MG faces a key vulnerability: they have kept only 1 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. If Bahia can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.
💡 Why This Matters: The 5.3-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 63% win probability for Atlético MG. In practical terms, Atlético MG would win 6 out of 10 such matchups.
Atlético MG has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 5.3-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.
These two teams drew 1-1 in the Brazilian Serie A (2026-07-21). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.
Match Simulator
AI-powered match simulation based on real statistics
0
:
0
|
0'
Atlético MG
Bahia
In H2H (head-to-head) matchups, to eliminate momentary fluctuations and coincidences, we limit our analyses to an optimal depth of exactly 10 matches. Neither less, nor more. This focused approach is our undisputed gold standard, revealing the tactical and psychological supremacy teams hold over each other in its purest form. We do not dwell on the noise of the past; we concentrate on the millimetric precision of current form.
Comparison Summary
This head-to-head comparison analyzes the last 10 matches of each team, evaluating attack power, defensive strength, form consistency, and overall performance metrics. The power ratings are calculated using a weighted algorithm that considers goals scored, goals conceded, win rate, and recent form trends.
Atlético MG
4W 2D 4L · 11 goals scored · 13 conceded
Bahia
3W 3D 4L · 14 goals scored · 15 conceded
Popular Teams