Bahamas vs Costa Rica Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

Bahamas has faced significantly tougher opposition (SoS: 59.7) compared to Costa Rica (SoS: 41.6). This means Bahamas's statistics carry more weight - they've been battle-tested against quality opponents.

Costa Rica leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.1 goals per game compared to Bahamas's 0.3 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Costa Rica is far superior, conceding just 1.9 goals per match with 2 clean sheets, while Bahamas leaks 4.3 goals per match.

Bahamas has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Costa Rica has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 3.8 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Bahamas is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 6 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Costa Rica is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Costa Rica faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.9 goals per match. If Bahamas can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 14.5-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Costa Rica. In practical terms, Costa Rica would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Costa Rica has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 14.5-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - North/Central America (2025-06-08): Costa Rica defeated Bahamas 0-8. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Costa Rica's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Bahamas. Notably, Costa Rica achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Bahamas shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 0-8 scoreline was emphatic — Costa Rica completely dominated Bahamas in that encounter, raising serious questions about Bahamas's ability to compete at this level. Bahamas will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Costa Rica will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.