Bahamas vs Grenada Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

Bahamas has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 59.7 against considerably stronger competition than Grenada (SoS: 49.3). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Few sides can match Grenada in front of goal. Their 2.1 average per fixture tells the story, with J. Francis driving that output personally responsible for 2 goals this campaign.

Defensively, Grenada is far superior, conceding just 1.7 goals per match with 3 clean sheets, while Bahamas leaks 4.3 goals per match.

Bahamas has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 4.2 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being unlikely.

❄️ Form Momentum: Bahamas is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 6 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Grenada has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.8 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Grenada is on the rise with 6W in last 10, while Bahamas shows signs of decline with 0W in last 6.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Grenada faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.7 goals per match. If Bahamas can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 36.5-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Grenada. In practical terms, Grenada would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on our comprehensive analysis including opponent quality adjustment, Grenada is the clear and dominant favorite. With a power rating of 54.8 vs 18.3, and superior metrics across the board, Grenada should win this comfortably.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - North/Central America (2025-06-05): Grenada defeated Bahamas 6-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Grenada's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Bahamas. Grenada secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 6-0 scoreline was emphatic — Grenada completely dominated Bahamas in that encounter, raising serious questions about Bahamas's ability to compete at this level. Bahamas will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Grenada will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.