Belgium vs Luxembourg Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (50.9 vs 42.7), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Belgium's attack is on another level, averaging 2.9 goals per match with T. Wullaert leading the charge (11 goals). This firepower makes them dangerous in any fixture.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Belgium — 0.8 goals conceded per game and 5 clean sheets put them well ahead of Luxembourg, who give up 4.2 goals per match at the other end.

Luxembourg has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Belgium is a strong road performer with a 60% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 4.4 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Belgium has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 2.1 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Luxembourg is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Belgium is on the rise with 6W in last 10, while Luxembourg shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 52.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Belgium. In practical terms, Belgium would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Our opponent-adjusted metrics point overwhelmingly in one direction: Belgium holds a commanding advantage here. The power rating gap — 75.1 against 22.4 — reinforces what the underlying numbers already suggest, making Belgium a strong and justified favorite to win decisively.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-06-09): Belgium defeated Luxembourg 0-7. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Belgium's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Luxembourg. Notably, Belgium achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Luxembourg shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 0-7 scoreline was emphatic — Belgium completely dominated Luxembourg in that encounter, raising serious questions about Luxembourg's ability to compete at this level. Luxembourg will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Belgium will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams met recently in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-06-05): Belgium defeated Luxembourg 6-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Belgium's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Luxembourg. Belgium secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 6-0 scoreline was emphatic — Belgium completely dominated Luxembourg in that encounter, raising serious questions about Luxembourg's ability to compete at this level. Luxembourg will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Belgium will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.