Benfica vs Estoril Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (58.5 vs 51.1), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Few sides can match Benfica in front of goal. Their 2.4 average per fixture tells the story, with Rafa driving that output personally responsible for 5 goals this campaign.

Defensively, Benfica holds the advantage — allowing just 1.1 goals per game against Estoril's 1.7.

Benfica has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Benfica has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.0 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Benfica has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 2.1 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Estoril is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Benfica is on the rise with 6W in last 10, while Estoril shows signs of decline with 0W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 39.8-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Benfica. In practical terms, Benfica would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Accounting for opponent quality throughout our evaluation, Benfica emerges as the heavy favorite by every measurable indicator. A power rating of 71.9 compared to 32.1, combined with across-the-board statistical superiority, projects Benfica as the likely winner and by a comfortable margin.

In their recent Portuguese Primeira Liga match (2026-05-16), Benfica prevailed 1-3 against Estoril. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Benfica achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Estoril shows genuine quality and mental strength. Estoril will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Benfica will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.