Bermuda vs Cuba Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 48.1 vs 48.9), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Bermuda (1.1 goals per match) and Cuba (0.9 goals per match) present comparable offensive threats, making this an evenly contested attacking matchup.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Cuba — 1.9 goals conceded per game and 2 clean sheets put them well ahead of Bermuda, who give up 2.9 goals per match at the other end.

Bermuda has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Cuba has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 3.4 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at unlikely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Bermuda is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Cuba is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 7 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Cuba faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.9 goals per match. If Bermuda can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 7.8-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 70% win probability for Cuba. In practical terms, Cuba would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Cuba, with a 7.8-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - North/Central America (2025-06-10): Bermuda defeated Cuba 1-2. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Bermuda's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Cuba. Notably, Bermuda achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Cuba shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 1-2 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Cuba will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Bermuda will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.