Bulgaria vs Turkey Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Turkey has faced significantly tougher opposition (SoS: 68.0) compared to Bulgaria (SoS: 56.7). This means Turkey's statistics carry more weight - they've been battle-tested against quality opponents.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Bulgaria averaging 1.6 and Turkey averaging 1.9 goals per match.

Defensively, Turkey is far superior, conceding just 0.9 goals per match with 4 clean sheets, while Bulgaria leaks 2.4 goals per match.

Bulgaria has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Turkey has an exceptional home record with a 83% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.4 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

🔥 Form Momentum: Turkey is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 19 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Turkey is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Bulgaria shows signs of decline with 3W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 36.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Turkey. In practical terms, Turkey would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Accounting for opponent quality throughout our evaluation, Turkey emerges as the heavy favorite by every measurable indicator. A power rating of 75.8 compared to 38.9, combined with across-the-board statistical superiority, projects Turkey as the likely winner and by a comfortable margin.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-11-15): Turkey defeated Bulgaria 2-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Turkey's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Bulgaria. Turkey secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Bulgaria will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Turkey will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - European (2025-10-11): Turkey defeated Bulgaria 1-6. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Turkey's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Bulgaria. Notably, Turkey achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Bulgaria shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 1-6 scoreline was emphatic — Turkey completely dominated Bulgaria in that encounter, raising serious questions about Bulgaria's ability to compete at this level. Bulgaria will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Turkey will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.