Burnley vs Brighton Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 59.5 vs 68.1), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Brighton leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.4 goals per game compared to Burnley's 0.8 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Brighton holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 1.1 goals per game and recording 4 clean sheets, compared to Burnley's leaky backline that surrenders 2.3 goals per match.

Burnley has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 6 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Brighton has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.8 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: Burnley is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Brighton has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Brighton is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Burnley shows signs of decline with 0W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 29.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Brighton. In practical terms, Brighton would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Brighton in this contest. Their superior power rating of 58.8, compared to 29.4 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

In the Premier League (2026-04-11), Brighton beat Burnley 0-2. League results are the most consistent indicator of form, and this result speaks volumes about the current dynamic between these teams. Notably, Brighton achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Burnley shows genuine quality and mental strength. Burnley will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Brighton will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.