Caernarfon vs Colwyn Bay Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 39.4 vs 44.9), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Offensively, Caernarfon outperforms Colwyn Bay with 1.5 goals per match to 1.0, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

Defensively, Colwyn Bay is far superior, conceding just 1.0 goals per match with 4 clean sheets, while Caernarfon leaks 2.1 goals per match.

Colwyn Bay has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.8 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking unlikely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Caernarfon has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📈 Form Momentum: Colwyn Bay has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

💡 Why This Matters: The 5.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 65% win probability for Colwyn Bay. In practical terms, Colwyn Bay would win 6 out of 10 such matchups.

Colwyn Bay has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 5.9-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. In their recent Cymru Premier match (2026-04-03), Caernarfon prevailed 0-2 against Colwyn Bay. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Caernarfon achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Colwyn Bay shows genuine quality and mental strength. Colwyn Bay will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Caernarfon will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. In their recent Cymru Premier match (2026-02-27), Caernarfon prevailed 3-0 against Colwyn Bay. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Caernarfon secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 3-0 scoreline was emphatic — Caernarfon completely dominated Colwyn Bay in that encounter, raising serious questions about Colwyn Bay's ability to compete at this level. Colwyn Bay will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Caernarfon will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.