Caernarfon vs TNS Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 39.4 vs 44.6), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Offensively, Caernarfon outperforms TNS with 1.5 goals per match to 1.2, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

TNS holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 1.2 goals per game and recording 2 clean sheets, compared to Caernarfon's leaky backline that surrenders 2.1 goals per match.

TNS has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

TNS is a strong road performer with a 67% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.0 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking unlikely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Caernarfon has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📈 Form Momentum: TNS has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

💡 Why This Matters: The 6.2-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 66% win probability for TNS. In practical terms, TNS would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

While TNS holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 6.2-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

In their recent Cymru Premier match (2026-03-27), TNS prevailed 0-4 against Caernarfon. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, TNS achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Caernarfon shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 0-4 scoreline was emphatic — TNS completely dominated Caernarfon in that encounter, raising serious questions about Caernarfon's ability to compete at this level. Caernarfon will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. TNS will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.