Canada vs Costa Rica Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (50.0 vs 57.1), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Canada leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.7 goals per game compared to Costa Rica's 0.8 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Canada is far superior, conceding just 0.9 goals per match with 3 clean sheets, while Costa Rica leaks 3.6 goals per match.

Canada has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Costa Rica has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Canada has an exceptional home record with a 75% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 3.5 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Costa Rica is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 5 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Canada is on the rise with 4W in last 10, while Costa Rica shows signs of decline with 0W in last 5.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Canada faces a key vulnerability: their away form is significantly weaker than their home record. If Costa Rica can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 29.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Canada. In practical terms, Canada would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Canada in this contest. Their superior power rating of 52.5, compared to 22.8 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. In their recent Internationals Women match (2026-06-10), Canada prevailed 0-6 against Costa Rica. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Canada achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Costa Rica shows genuine quality and mental strength. The 0-6 scoreline was emphatic — Canada completely dominated Costa Rica in that encounter, raising serious questions about Costa Rica's ability to compete at this level. Costa Rica will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Canada will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. In their recent Internationals Women match (2025-06-28), Canada prevailed 4-1 against Costa Rica. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Canada secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-1 scoreline was emphatic — Canada completely dominated Costa Rica in that encounter, raising serious questions about Costa Rica's ability to compete at this level. Costa Rica will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Canada will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.