Canada vs Zambia Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

Zambia has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 68.0 against considerably stronger competition than Canada (SoS: 50.0). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Canada leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.7 goals per game compared to Zambia's 1.1 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Canada is far superior, conceding just 0.9 goals per match with 3 clean sheets, while Zambia leaks 1.8 goals per match.

Canada has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 5 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Zambia has proven their mettle against elite opponents, winning 2 of 4 matches against top-tier teams. This is a crucial indicator of their ability to perform under pressure.

Canada has an exceptional home record with a 75% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.8 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: Zambia is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Canada faces a key vulnerability: their away form is significantly weaker than their home record. If Zambia can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 11.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 78% win probability for Canada. In practical terms, Canada would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Canada, with a 11.0-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

In their recent Internationals Women match (2026-04-11), Canada prevailed 4-0 against Zambia. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Canada secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-0 scoreline was emphatic — Canada completely dominated Zambia in that encounter, raising serious questions about Zambia's ability to compete at this level. Zambia will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Canada will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.