Chad vs Mali Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

Chad has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 56.7 against considerably stronger competition than Mali (SoS: 41.2). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Chad (0.8 goals per match) and Mali (0.9 goals per match) present comparable offensive threats, making this an evenly contested attacking matchup.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Mali — 0.7 goals conceded per game and 4 clean sheets put them well ahead of Chad, who give up 2.3 goals per match at the other end.

Chad has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.3 total goals. Under 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being possible.

❄️ Form Momentum: Chad is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Mali is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 13.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 82% win probability for Mali. In practical terms, Mali would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Mali has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 13.0-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - African (2025-10-08): Mali defeated Chad 0-2. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Mali's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Chad. Notably, Mali achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Chad shows genuine quality and mental strength. Chad will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Mali will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.