Chad vs Uganda Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Context matters here: Chad's schedule strength (SoS: 56.7) has been notably more demanding than Uganda's (SoS: 41.7), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

Uganda leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.5 goals per game compared to Chad's 0.8 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Uganda holds the advantage — allowing just 1.5 goals per game against Chad's 2.3.

Chad has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Statistical modeling projects 3.0 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Chad is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Uganda has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Uganda is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Chad shows signs of decline with 0W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Uganda faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If Chad can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 16.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Uganda. In practical terms, Uganda would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on the available data, Uganda holds the stronger position heading into this matchup. A power rating of 44.8 against 28.8 underlines their overall quality advantage and makes them the logical pick to come out on top.

In their recent Internationals match (2025-11-14), Uganda prevailed 2-1 against Chad. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Uganda secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 2-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Chad will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Uganda will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.