Chapecoense vs Bahia Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 49.1 vs 47.6), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Bahia leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.4 goals per game compared to Chapecoense's 0.9 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Bahia holds the advantage — allowing just 1.5 goals per game against Chapecoense's 2.3.

Chapecoense has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 3.0 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Chapecoense is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Bahia is on the rise with 3W in last 10, while Chapecoense shows signs of decline with 0W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Bahia faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If Chapecoense can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 13.6-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 84% win probability for Bahia. In practical terms, Bahia would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Bahia, with a 13.6-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

In the Brazilian Serie A (2026-07-17), Bahia beat Chapecoense 2-0. League results are the most consistent indicator of form, and this result speaks volumes about the current dynamic between these teams. Bahia secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Chapecoense will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Bahia will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.