Chapecoense vs Mirassol Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 49.1 vs 42.5), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Chapecoense (0.9 goals per match) and Mirassol (1.2 goals per match) present comparable offensive threats, making this an evenly contested attacking matchup.

Mirassol holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 1.0 goals per game and recording 2 clean sheets, compared to Chapecoense's leaky backline that surrenders 2.3 goals per match.

Chapecoense has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Mirassol has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 2.7 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Chapecoense is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Mirassol has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Mirassol is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Chapecoense shows signs of decline with 0W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Mirassol faces a key vulnerability: their away form is significantly weaker than their home record. If Chapecoense can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 18.2-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Mirassol. In practical terms, Mirassol would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Mirassol emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (47.2 vs 29.0) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

These two teams drew 1-1 in the Brazilian Serie A (2026-05-10). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.