Charlton vs Derby Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 55.1 vs 53.1), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

The attacking output of Charlton and Derby is virtually identical, with both sides posting averages of 1.4 and 1.5 goals per game respectively.

Both defenses are comparable, with Charlton conceding 1.4 and Derby conceding 1.5 per match.

Charlton has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.9 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Charlton has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.8 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Charlton is on the rise with 6W in last 10, while Derby shows signs of decline with 3W in last 10.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Charlton faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.4 goals per match. If Derby can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 7.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 70% win probability for Charlton. In practical terms, Charlton would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Charlton, with a 7.9-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

In their recent Championship match (2026-08-15), Charlton prevailed 2-1 against Derby. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Charlton secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 2-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Derby will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Charlton will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.