Chelsea vs Everton Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 59.8 vs 59.2), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Offensively, Everton outperforms Chelsea with 1.7 goals per match to 1.2, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

Defensively, Everton holds the advantage — allowing just 1.5 goals per game against Chelsea's 1.9.

Chelsea has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 7 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Everton has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 6 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 3.1 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Everton is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Everton faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If Chelsea can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 8.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 71% win probability for Everton. In practical terms, Everton would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Everton has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 8.4-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In the Premier League (2026-03-21), Everton beat Chelsea 3-0. League results are the most consistent indicator of form, and this result speaks volumes about the current dynamic between these teams. Everton secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 3-0 scoreline was emphatic — Everton completely dominated Chelsea in that encounter, raising serious questions about Chelsea's ability to compete at this level. Chelsea will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Everton will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.