Colombia vs United States Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

United States has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 67.1 against considerably stronger competition than Colombia (SoS: 47.4). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Few sides can match United States in front of goal. Their 2.2 average per fixture tells the story, with A. Sentnor driving that output personally responsible for 3 goals this campaign.

United States has the defensive edge, conceding 0.4 per match compared to Colombia's 1.2.

Colombia has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

United States has proven their mettle against elite opponents, winning 4 of 6 matches against top-tier teams. This is a crucial indicator of their ability to perform under pressure.

United States has an exceptional home record with a 88% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.2 total goals. Going Under 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking unlikely given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: Colombia is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 6 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

🔥 Form Momentum: United States is in scorching form, winning 8 of their last 10 matches with 22 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. United States is on the rise with 8W in last 10, while Colombia shows signs of decline with 1W in last 6.

💡 Why This Matters: The 53.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for United States. In practical terms, United States would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Accounting for opponent quality throughout our evaluation, United States emerges as the heavy favorite by every measurable indicator. A power rating of 87.4 compared to 34.3, combined with across-the-board statistical superiority, projects United States as the likely winner and by a comfortable margin.

In the SheBelieves Cup (2026-03-07), United States eliminated Colombia with a 1-0 result. Cup matches bring a unique intensity, and United States showed they can handle the pressure. United States secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 1-0 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Colombia will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. United States will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.