Colwyn Bay vs Caernarfon Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (44.9 vs 39.4), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Caernarfon leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.5 goals per game compared to Colwyn Bay's 1.0 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Colwyn Bay is far superior, conceding just 1.0 goals per match with 4 clean sheets, while Caernarfon leaks 2.1 goals per match.

Colwyn Bay has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.8 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking unlikely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Colwyn Bay has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📈 Form Momentum: Caernarfon has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

💡 Why This Matters: The 5.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 65% win probability for Colwyn Bay. In practical terms, Colwyn Bay would win 6 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers lean toward Colwyn Bay, with a 5.9-point power rating gap pointing to a genuine advantage — though not one that makes this contest a formality.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. In their recent Cymru Premier match (2026-04-03), Caernarfon prevailed 0-2 against Colwyn Bay. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Caernarfon achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Colwyn Bay shows genuine quality and mental strength. Colwyn Bay will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Caernarfon will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. In their recent Cymru Premier match (2026-02-27), Caernarfon prevailed 3-0 against Colwyn Bay. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Caernarfon secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 3-0 scoreline was emphatic — Caernarfon completely dominated Colwyn Bay in that encounter, raising serious questions about Colwyn Bay's ability to compete at this level. Colwyn Bay will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Caernarfon will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.