Costa Rica vs El Salvador Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

El Salvador has faced significantly tougher opposition (SoS: 70.3) compared to Costa Rica (SoS: 57.1). This means El Salvador's statistics carry more weight - they've been battle-tested against quality opponents.

Few sides can match El Salvador in front of goal. Their 2.8 average per fixture tells the story, with J. Velásquez driving that output personally responsible for 1 goals this campaign.

El Salvador holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 0.5 goals per game and recording 2 clean sheets, compared to Costa Rica's leaky backline that surrenders 3.6 goals per match.

Costa Rica has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

El Salvador has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

El Salvador is a strong road performer with a 100% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.9 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: Costa Rica is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 5 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. El Salvador is on the rise with 3W in last 4, while Costa Rica shows signs of decline with 0W in last 5.

💡 Why This Matters: The 70.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for El Salvador. In practical terms, El Salvador would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Accounting for opponent quality throughout our evaluation, El Salvador emerges as the heavy favorite by every measurable indicator. A power rating of 93.7 compared to 22.8, combined with across-the-board statistical superiority, projects El Salvador as the likely winner and by a comfortable margin.

These two teams drew 1-1 in the Internationals Women (2026-06-06). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.