Croatia vs Bulgaria Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 48.7 vs 47.0), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Few sides can match Croatia in front of goal. Their 2.4 average per fixture tells the story, with J. Čanjevac driving that output personally responsible for 4 goals this campaign.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Croatia — 0.8 goals conceded per game and 6 clean sheets put them well ahead of Bulgaria, who give up 1.7 goals per match at the other end.

Croatia has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Bulgaria has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Croatia is a strong road performer with a 80% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Statistical modeling projects 3.1 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at unlikely based on both sides' scoring records.

🔥 Form Momentum: Croatia is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 24 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

❄️ Form Momentum: Bulgaria is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 7 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Croatia is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Bulgaria shows signs of decline with 2W in last 7.

💡 Why This Matters: The 29.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Croatia. In practical terms, Croatia would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Croatia emerges as the favorite in this matchup. With a stronger overall power rating (69.0 vs 39.3) and advantages in key areas, they should have enough to prevail.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-06-09): Croatia defeated Bulgaria 4-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Croatia's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Bulgaria. Croatia secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 4-0 scoreline was emphatic — Croatia completely dominated Bulgaria in that encounter, raising serious questions about Bulgaria's ability to compete at this level. Bulgaria will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Croatia will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams met recently in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-03-03): Croatia defeated Bulgaria 0-1. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Croatia's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Bulgaria. Notably, Croatia achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Bulgaria shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 0-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Bulgaria will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Croatia will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.