Croatia vs Sweden Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 63.3 vs 54.2), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Offensively, Croatia outperforms Sweden with 1.6 goals per match to 1.0, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Croatia — 0.8 goals conceded per game and 2 clean sheets put them well ahead of Sweden, who give up 2.5 goals per match at the other end.

Croatia has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Sweden has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.0 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

❄️ Form Momentum: Croatia is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 5 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Sweden is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 4 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 34.6-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Croatia. In practical terms, Croatia would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Accounting for opponent quality throughout our evaluation, Croatia emerges as the heavy favorite by every measurable indicator. A power rating of 63.2 compared to 28.6, combined with across-the-board statistical superiority, projects Croatia as the likely winner and by a comfortable margin.

These two teams drew 1-1 in the Under 21 Internationals (2025-06-10). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.