Cuba vs St. Lucia Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 48.9 vs 45.7), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

The attacking output of Cuba and St. Lucia is virtually identical, with both sides posting averages of 0.9 and 0.8 goals per game respectively.

Cuba holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 1.9 goals per game and recording 2 clean sheets, compared to St. Lucia's leaky backline that surrenders 3.4 goals per match.

Cuba has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

St. Lucia has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 3.5 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Cuba is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 7 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: St. Lucia is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 5 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Cuba faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.9 goals per match. If St. Lucia can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 12.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 80% win probability for Cuba. In practical terms, Cuba would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

While Cuba holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 12.0-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

In their recent Internationals match (2025-11-12), Cuba prevailed 3-0 against St. Lucia. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Cuba secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 3-0 scoreline was emphatic — Cuba completely dominated St. Lucia in that encounter, raising serious questions about St. Lucia's ability to compete at this level. St. Lucia will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Cuba will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.