Denmark vs Italy Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 46.8 vs 44.2), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Denmark holds the attacking edge with 2.1 goals per match versus Italy's 1.3, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

Defensively, Denmark and Italy are evenly matched, allowing 1.2 and 1.1 goals per game respectively.

Denmark has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Italy has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Denmark is a strong road performer with a 60% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Statistical modeling projects 2.8 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Denmark has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 2.1 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Italy is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Denmark is on the rise with 6W in last 10, while Italy shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 19.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Denmark. In practical terms, Denmark would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Denmark in this contest. Their superior power rating of 61.5, compared to 42.4 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams drew 0-0 in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-04-18). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning. These two teams drew 1-1 in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-03-07). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.