Denmark vs Lithuania Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Surface-level numbers suggest a competitive matchup, but the Strength of Schedule correction tells a different story. The favorite has earned their metrics against stiffer competition, exposing a meaningful performance gap between these two sides.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 55.1 vs 55.2), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Few sides can match Denmark in front of goal. Their 2.4 average per fixture tells the story, with R. Højlund driving that output personally responsible for 5 goals this campaign.

Denmark holds a clear defensive edge, limiting opponents to just 1.0 goals per game and recording 5 clean sheets, compared to Lithuania's leaky backline that surrenders 1.9 goals per match.

Lithuania has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.0 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Denmark has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.9 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Lithuania is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Denmark is on the rise with 5W in last 10, while Lithuania shows signs of decline with 1W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 37.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Denmark. In practical terms, Denmark would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on our comprehensive analysis including opponent quality adjustment, Denmark is the clear and dominant favorite. With a power rating of 67.7 vs 30.3, and superior metrics across the board, Denmark should win this comfortably.

In their recent Internationals match (2025-06-10), Denmark prevailed 5-0 against Lithuania. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Denmark secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 5-0 scoreline was emphatic — Denmark completely dominated Lithuania in that encounter, raising serious questions about Lithuania's ability to compete at this level. Lithuania will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Denmark will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.