Derry vs Dundalk Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 43.7 vs 48.5), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

The attacking output of Derry and Dundalk is virtually identical, with both sides posting averages of 1.7 and 1.5 goals per game respectively.

Dundalk's backline outperforms Derry's, with 1.2 goals conceded per match versus 1.6.

Derry has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Dundalk has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.0 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Dundalk has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

💡 Why This Matters: The 9.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 72% win probability for Dundalk. In practical terms, Dundalk would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Dundalk has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 9.0-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In their recent Irish Premier Division match (2026-05-29), Dundalk prevailed 2-1 against Derry. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Dundalk secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 2-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Derry will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Dundalk will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.