Derry vs Shamrock Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 43.7 vs 53.6), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Derry averaging 1.7 and Shamrock averaging 1.9 goals per match.

Shamrock has the defensive edge, conceding 1.1 per match compared to Derry's 1.6.

Derry has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Shamrock has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Shamrock has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 3.1 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being likely.

📈 Form Momentum: Shamrock has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.9 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Shamrock is on the rise with 6W in last 10, while Derry shows signs of decline with 3W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 19.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Shamrock. In practical terms, Shamrock would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Shamrock in this contest. Their superior power rating of 61.2, compared to 42.2 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

These two teams drew 1-1 in the Irish Premier Division (2026-06-22). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.