Dominican Rep vs Costa Rica Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

Dominican Rep has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 70.3 against considerably stronger competition than Costa Rica (SoS: 41.6). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Dominican Rep holds the attacking edge with 1.5 goals per match versus Costa Rica's 1.1, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

Defensively, Dominican Rep and Costa Rica are evenly matched, allowing 1.6 and 1.9 goals per game respectively.

Costa Rica has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 3.0 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being possible.

❄️ Form Momentum: Dominican Rep is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Costa Rica is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Dominican Rep faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.6 goals per match. If Costa Rica can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 15.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Dominican Rep. In practical terms, Dominican Rep would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Dominican Rep in this contest. Their superior power rating of 48.5, compared to 32.8 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

In the Concacaf Gold Cup (2025-06-19), Costa Rica eliminated Dominican Rep with a 2-1 result. Cup matches bring a unique intensity, and Costa Rica showed they can handle the pressure. Costa Rica secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 2-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Dominican Rep will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Costa Rica will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.