Dundalk vs Derry Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (48.5 vs 43.7), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Dundalk averaging 1.5 and Derry averaging 1.7 goals per match.

Dundalk's backline outperforms Derry's, with 1.2 goals conceded per match versus 1.6.

Dundalk has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Derry has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 3.0 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Dundalk has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

💡 Why This Matters: The 9.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 72% win probability for Dundalk. In practical terms, Dundalk would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

While Dundalk holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 9.0-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

In their recent Irish Premier Division match (2026-05-29), Dundalk prevailed 2-1 against Derry. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Dundalk secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 2-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Derry will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Dundalk will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.