Durham vs Newcastle Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 44.9 vs 46.1), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Durham (1.4 goals per match) and Newcastle (1.1 goals per match) present comparable offensive threats, making this an evenly contested attacking matchup.

Defensively, Newcastle is far superior, conceding just 0.8 goals per match with 3 clean sheets, while Durham leaks 1.6 goals per match.

Durham has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Newcastle has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.4 total goals. Going Under 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

💡 Why This Matters: The 5.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 64% win probability for Newcastle. In practical terms, Newcastle would win 6 out of 10 such matchups.

While Newcastle holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 5.4-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

In their recent English WSL 2 match (2026-05-02), Durham prevailed 0-1 against Newcastle. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Durham achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Newcastle shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 0-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Newcastle will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Durham will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.