Estonia vs Lithuania Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

With comparable strength of schedule figures (41.0 vs 47.9), the opposition quality faced by both sides has been largely equivalent, giving these head-to-head stats greater analytical validity.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Estonia averaging 1.4 and Lithuania averaging 1.6 goals per match.

Lithuania has the defensive edge, conceding 0.5 per match compared to Estonia's 1.1.

Estonia has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Lithuania has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Statistical modeling projects 2.3 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at unlikely based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Estonia has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📈 Form Momentum: Lithuania has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.75 points per game over their last 8 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

💡 Why This Matters: The 12.6-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 82% win probability for Lithuania. In practical terms, Lithuania would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

While Lithuania holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 12.6-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

These teams have faced each other 3 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-04-18): Estonia defeated Lithuania 2-1. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Estonia's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Lithuania. Estonia secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 2-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Lithuania will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Estonia will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams drew 0-0 in the Women's European World Cup Qualifiers (2026-03-07). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning. In their recent Internationals Women match (2025-11-29), Lithuania prevailed 0-2 against Estonia. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Lithuania achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Estonia shows genuine quality and mental strength. Estonia will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Lithuania will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.