Everton vs Arsenal Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

Context matters here: Arsenal's schedule strength (SoS: 72.1) has been notably more demanding than Everton's (SoS: 59.3), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

Everton leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.7 goals per game compared to Arsenal's 1.2 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Arsenal — 0.5 goals conceded per game and 6 clean sheets put them well ahead of Everton, who give up 1.5 goals per match at the other end.

Everton has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 6 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Arsenal has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 2 of 6 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Arsenal has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 2.5 total goals. Under 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being possible.

❄️ Form Momentum: Everton is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📈 Form Momentum: Arsenal has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 2.1 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Arsenal is on the rise with 6W in last 10, while Everton shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 22.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Arsenal. In practical terms, Arsenal would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Arsenal in this contest. Their superior power rating of 70.8, compared to 48.4 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.