Everton vs Chelsea Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 59.2 vs 59.8), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Everton leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.7 goals per game compared to Chelsea's 1.2 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Everton has the defensive edge, conceding 1.5 per match compared to Chelsea's 1.9.

Everton has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 6 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Chelsea has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 7 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 3.2 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being likely.

❄️ Form Momentum: Everton is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Everton faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If Chelsea can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 8.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 71% win probability for Everton. In practical terms, Everton would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

While Everton holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 8.4-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

In the Premier League (2026-03-21), Everton beat Chelsea 3-0. League results are the most consistent indicator of form, and this result speaks volumes about the current dynamic between these teams. Everton secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 3-0 scoreline was emphatic — Everton completely dominated Chelsea in that encounter, raising serious questions about Chelsea's ability to compete at this level. Chelsea will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Everton will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.