Fredrikstad vs Sarpsborg Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

Sarpsborg has faced significantly tougher opposition (SoS: 50.2) compared to Fredrikstad (SoS: 36.0). This means Sarpsborg's statistics carry more weight - they've been battle-tested against quality opponents.

Offensively, Sarpsborg outperforms Fredrikstad with 1.5 goals per match to 0.9, though the margin leaves the contest genuinely open.

The defensive records are closely aligned, with Fredrikstad giving up 1.2 and Sarpsborg giving up 1.3 per fixture.

Sarpsborg has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Sarpsborg has an exceptional home record with a 80% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 2.5 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Fredrikstad has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.6 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

📈 Form Momentum: Sarpsborg has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.7 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Sarpsborg faces a key vulnerability: their away form is significantly weaker than their home record. If Fredrikstad can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 11.7-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 79% win probability for Sarpsborg. In practical terms, Sarpsborg would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

While Sarpsborg holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 11.7-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

In their recent Norwegian Eliteserien match (2026-05-09), Sarpsborg prevailed 2-1 against Fredrikstad. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Sarpsborg secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 2-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Fredrikstad will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Sarpsborg will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.