Germany vs Denmark Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

While the data leans decisively toward one side, dismissing the underdog would be premature. Adjusting for strength of schedule brings the margins closer together, yet the broader trend holds firm throughout the analysis.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 49.2 vs 48.0), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Germany holds the attacking edge with 2.0 goals per match versus Denmark's 1.5, though the gap isn't insurmountable.

Both defenses are comparable, with Germany conceding 2.0 and Denmark conceding 1.8 per match.

Germany has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 3.6 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at unlikely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Denmark is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 4 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Germany faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 2.0 goals per match. If Denmark can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 11.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 78% win probability for Germany. In practical terms, Germany would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

While Germany holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 11.1-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.

In their recent UEFA Under 19 Championship match (2026-06-28), Germany prevailed 4-3 against Denmark. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Germany secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 4-3 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Denmark will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Germany will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.