Greece vs Moldova Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

Context matters here: Greece's schedule strength (SoS: 53.0) has been notably more demanding than Moldova's (SoS: 42.8), meaning their underlying stats reflect performance against higher-calibre opposition and should be weighted accordingly.

Greece leads the attacking statistics, averaging 1.7 goals per game compared to Moldova's 0.8 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

Defensively, Greece and Moldova are evenly matched, allowing 1.0 and 0.8 goals per game respectively.

Greece has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 1 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 2.1 total goals. Going Under 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking unlikely given current form.

📈 Form Momentum: Greece has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.89 points per game over their last 9 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

❄️ Form Momentum: Moldova is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 9 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Greece is on the rise with 5W in last 9, while Moldova shows signs of decline with 2W in last 9.

💡 Why This Matters: The 19.4-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Greece. In practical terms, Greece would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

The numbers point firmly toward Greece in this contest. Their superior power rating of 59.5, compared to 40.1 for the opposition, reflects a meaningful edge across the metrics that matter most when projecting an outcome.

These two teams drew 1-1 in the Internationals Women (2026-04-18). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.