Greece vs Italy Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

Raw output from both teams looks comparable at first glance, yet once we account for Strength of Schedule, a clear hierarchy emerges. The favorite has repeatedly risen to the challenge against higher-caliber opponents, underlining a genuine quality advantage.

Italy has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 79.0 against considerably stronger competition than Greece (SoS: 56.9). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Italy possess a formidable attacking unit, with M. Kean accounting for 6 goals and the squad maintaining an impressive 2.4 goals per game — a threat no opponent can afford to overlook.

Italy's backline outperforms Greece's, with 1.0 goals conceded per match versus 1.6.

Greece has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 4 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Italy has an exceptional home record with a 75% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Italy is a strong road performer with a 83% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Based on the combined statistics, expect 3.1 total goals. Over 2.5 goals is the statistical lean, with BTTS (Both Teams to Score) being possible.

❄️ Form Momentum: Greece is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

🔥 Form Momentum: Italy is in scorching form, winning 8 of their last 10 matches with 24 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Italy is on the rise with 8W in last 10, while Greece shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 50.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Italy. In practical terms, Italy would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Based on our comprehensive analysis including opponent quality adjustment, Italy is the clear and dominant favorite. With a power rating of 91.8 vs 40.9, and superior metrics across the board, Italy should win this comfortably.

In their recent Internationals match (2026-06-07), Italy prevailed 0-1 against Greece. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Notably, Italy achieved this result away from home, which is particularly impressive. Winning on the road against Greece shows genuine quality and mental strength. The narrow 0-1 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Greece will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Italy will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.