Grêmio vs Chapecoense Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

Both teams have faced similar levels of opposition (SoS: 48.2 vs 49.1), making the raw statistics a reliable comparison tool in this matchup.

Both teams are evenly matched in attack, with Grêmio averaging 0.7 and Chapecoense averaging 0.9 goals per match.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Grêmio — 1.1 goals conceded per game and 4 clean sheets put them well ahead of Chapecoense, who give up 2.3 goals per match at the other end.

Grêmio has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Chapecoense has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 2.5 goals in this fixture. The data points Under 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at likely based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Grêmio is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

❄️ Form Momentum: Chapecoense is struggling for form, winning just 0 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

💡 Why This Matters: The 8.9-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 72% win probability for Grêmio. In practical terms, Grêmio would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

While Grêmio holds a measurable edge in the adjusted standings, the 8.9-point differential in power ratings indicates a competitive matchup rather than a clear-cut outcome.