Haiti vs Costa Rica Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

The statistics point to a clear direction in this matchup, though the underdog should not be underestimated. When we factor in the quality of opponents each team has faced, the gap narrows slightly but the overall picture remains consistent.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 46.6 vs 41.6), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

The attacking output of Haiti and Costa Rica is virtually identical, with both sides posting averages of 1.1 and 1.1 goals per game respectively.

Haiti has the defensive edge, conceding 1.5 per match compared to Costa Rica's 1.9.

Costa Rica has struggled against elite opposition, winning only 0 of 3 matches. When the stakes are highest, their performance drops significantly.

Statistical modeling projects 2.8 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

❄️ Form Momentum: Costa Rica is struggling for form, winning just 1 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Haiti faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.5 goals per match. If Costa Rica can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 5.5-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 64% win probability for Haiti. In practical terms, Haiti would win 6 out of 10 such matchups.

Haiti has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 5.5-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. These two teams met recently in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - North/Central America (2025-11-14): Haiti defeated Costa Rica 1-0. Winning in a high-pressure tournament like this demonstrates Haiti's ability to perform on the biggest stage against Costa Rica. Haiti secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The narrow 1-0 result shows how tight these encounters are. A single moment of quality or a tactical tweak could swing the next meeting either way. Costa Rica will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Haiti will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. These two teams drew 3-3 in the FIFA World Cup Qualifying - North/Central America (2025-09-10). The stalemate suggests these sides are closely matched, and another tight contest could be on the cards. With the previous match ending in a draw, neither side holds a psychological edge. Both teams will feel they have a genuine chance of winning.