Hajduk vs Varaždin Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 55.8 vs 49.0), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

The attacking output of Hajduk and Varaždin is virtually identical, with both sides posting averages of 1.7 and 1.8 goals per game respectively.

Both defenses are comparable, with Hajduk conceding 1.2 and Varaždin conceding 0.9 per match.

Varaždin has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Varaždin has an exceptional home record with a 83% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Statistical modeling projects 2.8 goals in this fixture. The data points Over 2.5 as the value threshold, while BTTS stands at possible based on both sides' scoring records.

📈 Form Momentum: Hajduk has been remarkably consistent, maintaining a steady 1.5 points per game over their last 10 matches. This stability makes them a predictable but reliable force.

🔥 Form Momentum: Varaždin is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 18 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Varaždin is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Hajduk shows signs of decline with 4W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 9.8-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 74% win probability for Varaždin. In practical terms, Varaždin would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Varaždin has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 9.8-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In their recent Croatia Prva HNL match (2026-05-03), Hajduk prevailed 3-1 against Varaždin. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Hajduk secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Varaždin will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Hajduk will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.