Hearts vs Aberdeen Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

When we look at the raw statistics, both teams appear to be in form, but applying the Strength of Schedule adjustment reveals a significant quality gap. The favorite has been tested against tougher opposition and has consistently delivered.

Aberdeen has earned their numbers the hard way, posting a SoS of 46.3 against considerably stronger competition than Hearts (SoS: 34.9). Their figures deserve greater analytical credence as a result — forged against genuinely difficult opponents.

Hearts leads the attacking statistics, averaging 2.2 goals per game compared to Aberdeen's 1.3 — a meaningful but far from decisive advantage.

The numbers tell a compelling defensive story for Hearts — 0.7 goals conceded per game and 5 clean sheets put them well ahead of Aberdeen, who give up 2.9 goals per match at the other end.

Aberdeen has not faced any elite-level opponents in their recent matches, making it difficult to assess their ceiling.

Hearts is a strong road performer with a 71% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.5 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking possible given current form.

🔥 Form Momentum: Hearts is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 22 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

❄️ Form Momentum: Aberdeen is struggling for form, winning just 2 of their last 10 matches. Teams in this state often lack the confidence to compete in tight moments.

📊 Key Trend: The form trajectories are diverging. Hearts is on the rise with 7W in last 10, while Aberdeen shows signs of decline with 2W in last 10.

💡 Why This Matters: The 33.0-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 85% win probability for Hearts. In practical terms, Hearts would win 8 out of 10 such matchups.

Our opponent-adjusted metrics point overwhelmingly in one direction: Hearts holds a commanding advantage here. The power rating gap — 60.8 against 27.8 — reinforces what the underlying numbers already suggest, making Hearts a strong and justified favorite to win decisively.

These teams have faced each other 2 times in their recent matches, adding extra spice to this rivalry. In their recent Scottish SWPL 1 match (2026-08-16), Hearts prevailed 6-0 against Aberdeen. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Hearts secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 6-0 scoreline was emphatic — Hearts completely dominated Aberdeen in that encounter, raising serious questions about Aberdeen's ability to compete at this level. Aberdeen will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Hearts will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost. In their recent Scottish SWPL 1 match (2026-02-08), Hearts prevailed 6-0 against Aberdeen. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Hearts secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. The 6-0 scoreline was emphatic — Hearts completely dominated Aberdeen in that encounter, raising serious questions about Aberdeen's ability to compete at this level. Aberdeen will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Hearts will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.