Hearts vs Celtic Head-to-Head Stats and Form Comparison

A statistical edge is evident here, but the trailing side carries enough threat to keep this competitive. Once opponent quality is accounted for, the differential softens somewhat without fundamentally altering the overall outlook.

The level of competition each team has encountered is broadly aligned (SoS: 47.0 vs 42.4), which adds credibility to any direct statistical comparisons drawn between these two sides.

Celtic possess a formidable attacking unit, with D. Maeda accounting for 9 goals and the squad maintaining an impressive 2.7 goals per game — a threat no opponent can afford to overlook.

Hearts has the defensive edge, conceding 1.3 per match compared to Celtic's 1.6.

Hearts has an exceptional home record with a 100% win rate at their home ground. When playing at home, they become significantly more dangerous.

Celtic is a strong road performer with a 67% away win rate, proving they can deliver results regardless of venue.

Crunching the numbers, this match averages out to 3.7 total goals. Going Over 2.5 carries the stronger statistical case, with the BTTS market looking likely given current form.

🔥 Form Momentum: Hearts is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 17 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

🔥 Form Momentum: Celtic is in scorching form, winning 7 of their last 10 matches with 27 goals scored. This level of consistency is difficult to sustain but devastating while it lasts.

📊 Key Trend: Both teams are on upward trajectories. Hearts has won 7 of their last 5, while Celtic has won 7. This clash of momentum makes the outcome particularly unpredictable.

⚠️ Risk Factor: Despite being the statistical favorite, Celtic faces a key vulnerability: their defense concedes 1.6 goals per match. If Hearts can exploit this, an upset becomes plausible.

💡 Why This Matters: The 6.1-point power rating gap between these teams translates to approximately a 65% win probability for Celtic. In practical terms, Celtic would win 7 out of 10 such matchups.

Celtic has the edge based on adjusted metrics, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. The 6.1-point power gap suggests an advantage without guaranteeing victory.

In their recent Scottish Premiership match (2026-05-16), Celtic prevailed 3-1 against Hearts. This result provides valuable insight into how these teams match up against each other. Celtic secured this victory at home, where they tend to be strongest. However, the next encounter could present a different challenge if the venue changes. Hearts will be eager to avenge this defeat. The desire for revenge can be a powerful motivator, and they may come into the next meeting with extra determination. Celtic will carry a psychological advantage from this recent victory. Knowing you've beaten your opponent recently provides a significant confidence boost.